{ "benchmark": "Video Globe Challenge 2020 (Bodart, Le Coz, Jodeau & Hauet; doi:10.57745/KVNIHX)", "protocol": "Videos 1 and 8 were used for development. The agent, policy and parameters were frozen (git tag eval-freeze) before videos 2-7 were scored once per brain. Every run is in eval/runs.jsonl.", "experts": { "vgc1": { "n": 15, "median_abs_err_pct": 23.02, "best_abs_err_pct": 1.83, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref_pct": 12.4, "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "experts_q": [ 0.836, 1.381, 0.862, 0.937, 1.237, 0.889, 0.715, 1.109, 0.925, 1.191, 1.084, 1.116, 0.97, 1.101, 0.948 ] }, "vgc2": { "n": 17, "median_abs_err_pct": 16.17, "best_abs_err_pct": 3.67, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref_pct": 5.5, "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "experts_q": [ 79.943, 89.74, 91.283, 79.059, 99.727, 80.877, 103.98, 73.29, 90.495, 97.925, 114.218, 123.762, 113.424, 90.163, 84.582, 114.255, 78.645 ] }, "vgc3": { "n": 18, "median_abs_err_pct": 22.4, "best_abs_err_pct": 2.1, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref_pct": 5.8, "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "experts_q": [ 45.734, -43.71, 54.001, 41.638, 49.714, 40.852, 39.506, -52.195, 53.812, 43.971, 49.809, 37.012, 52.277, 40.457, -50.582, 46.089, 41.013, 52.79 ] }, "vgc4": { "n": 22, "median_abs_err_pct": 10.5, "best_abs_err_pct": 0.42, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref_pct": 15.0, "site": "Russell River (drone)", "experts_q": [ 147.252, 105.71, 135.433, 107.52, 150.984, 160.713, 130.385, 140.245, 161.778, 136.631, 166.129, 155.604, 130.2, 92.522, 114.389, 150.713, 151.573, 48.823, 139.588, 155.8, 51.237, 146.124 ] }, "vgc5": { "n": 23, "median_abs_err_pct": 13.39, "best_abs_err_pct": 1.25, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref_pct": 5.3, "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "experts_q": [ 22.771, 21.002, 15.745, 18.955, 18.979, 18.246, 15.66, 18.083, 16.631, 14.727, 19.292, 20.161, 16.878, 16.161, 18.671, 16.398, 16.51, 15.846, 17.062, 14.763, 19.946, 17.527, 20.01 ] }, "vgc6": { "n": 17, "median_abs_err_pct": 17.7, "best_abs_err_pct": 0.11, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref_pct": 9.3, "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "experts_q": [ 37.074, -40.799, 54.475, 42.982, 44.228, 54.324, -38.768, -47.873, 32.056, 42.295, 49.871, 52.804, 44.322, 45.774, 51.969, 43.91, 53.682 ] }, "vgc7": { "n": 15, "median_abs_err_pct": 2.16, "best_abs_err_pct": 0.04, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref_pct": 5.3, "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "experts_q": [ 901.489, 952.878, 983.462, 922.698, 981.444, 981.823, 953.999, 963.159, 927.582, 731.726, 955.819, 635.192, 650.171, 983.634, 928.706 ] }, "vgc8": { "n": 23, "median_abs_err_pct": 9.43, "best_abs_err_pct": 0.31, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref_pct": 5.0, "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "experts_q": [ 0.763, 0.814, 0.998, 0.72, 0.767, 0.72, 0.674, 0.621, 0.619, 0.916, 0.696, 0.692, 0.68, 0.654, 0.764, 0.733, 0.76, 0.641, 0.764, 0.638, 0.608, 0.651, 0.638 ] } }, "runs": { "vgc-autopilot": { "brain": "autopilot", "label": "frozen (blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 13.11, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 11.11, "within_ref_uncertainty": 1, "beats_median_expert": 3, "mean_beats_share": 0.515, "cost_usd": 0.0 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1.375, "q_estimate": 1.375, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 9.13, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.867 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 9.13, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.867 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.999, "q_lo": 0.9325, "q_hi": 1.0654, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.375, "q_lo": 1.2542, "q_hi": 1.4958, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 43.2, "run_id": "r-20261025215946-d33ee2" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 0.7757, "q_estimate": 0.7757, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 21.97, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 21, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.13 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 21.97, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 21, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.13 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.7235, "q_lo": 0.6737, "q_hi": 0.7733, "coverage": 0.999 }, "stiv": { "q": 0.8278, "q_lo": 0.7489, "q_hi": 0.9068, "coverage": 0.952 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 47.8, "run_id": "r-20261025220031-f96b51" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 127.2796, "q_estimate": 127.2796, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 17.91, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.353 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 17.91, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.353 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 118.8359, "q_lo": 111.5368, "q_hi": 126.1351, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 135.7232, "q_lo": 126.2242, "q_hi": 145.2221, "coverage": 0.984 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 58.8, "run_id": "r-20261025220121-423b0b" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 51.2917, "q_estimate": 51.2917, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -7.01, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.778 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -7.01, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.778 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 47.5491, "q_lo": 44.6963, "q_hi": 50.4019, "coverage": 0.996 }, "stiv": { "q": 55.0344, "q_lo": 51.7557, "q_hi": 58.3131, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 56.5, "run_id": "r-20261025220223-7d99ab" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 140.5328, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 1.1, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.909 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 140.5328, "q_lo": 129.1956, "q_hi": 151.87, "coverage": 0.758 }, "stiv": { "q": 150.767, "q_lo": 135.7992, "q_hi": 165.7348, "coverage": 0.61 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 45.9, "run_id": "r-20261025220320-a3dad9" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 24.2514, "q_estimate": 24.2514, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 23.1, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 23.1, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 22.6808, "q_lo": 21.4958, "q_hi": 23.8657, "coverage": 0.994 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.8221, "q_lo": 24.3518, "q_hi": 27.2924, "coverage": 0.936 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 53.7, "run_id": "r-20261025220408-6d66b5" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 55.4648, "q_estimate": 55.4648, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": 3.21, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 3.21, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 54.6314, "q_lo": 51.3315, "q_hi": 57.9313, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 56.2982, "q_lo": 52.9065, "q_hi": 59.6899, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 52.1, "run_id": "r-20261025220503-17b69e" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 824.9568, "q_estimate": 824.9568, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": -14.32, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 13, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.2 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -14.32, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 13, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.2 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 3.4292, "q_lo": 2.8493, "q_hi": 4.0091, "coverage": 0.318 }, "stiv": { "q": 824.9568, "q_lo": 536.0851, "q_hi": 1113.8286, "coverage": 0.958 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 30.4, "run_id": "r-20261025220557-c69cd9" } ] }, "vgc-llm-sonnet": { "brain": "llm", "label": "frozen (blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 12.27, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 17.32, "within_ref_uncertainty": 3, "beats_median_expert": 2, "mean_beats_share": 0.426, "cost_usd": 0.735 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 1.31 flags a visible bed that biases LSPIV low (1.0 vs 1.49 m\u00b3/s); STIV streaks are clean and parallel with full coverage." ], "q_published": 1.4939, "q_estimate": 1.4939, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 18.56, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 8, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.533 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 18.56, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 8, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.533 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 1.4939, "q_lo": 1.3845, "q_hi": 1.6034, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 0.999, "q_lo": 0.9325, "q_hi": 1.0654, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0505, "seconds": 55.0, "run_id": "r-20261025220631-d65e1f" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV (0.675 m\u00b3/s) and dense flow (0.666 m\u00b3/s) agree within 2%, and the LSPIV field is restored with 95% valid vectors." ], "q_published": 0.6707, "q_estimate": 0.6707, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 5.46, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 9, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.652 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 5.46, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 9, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.652 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.6751, "q_lo": 0.6283, "q_hi": 0.7218, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 0.8278, "q_lo": 0.7489, "q_hi": 0.9068, "coverage": 0.952 }, "dense_flow": { "q": 0.6664, "q_lo": 0.6205, "q_hi": 0.7124, "coverage": 0.999 } }, "cost_usd": 0.1759, "seconds": 75.5, "run_id": "r-20261025220743-53f86c" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio is 5.0 (bed visible), so LSPIV is biased low at 118.8 m\u00b3/s. STIV has straight parallel streaks, valid_frac 0.87 and coverage 0.98, and gives 135.7 m\u00b3/s. The two methods differ by about 12%." ], "q_published": 135.7232, "q_estimate": 135.7232, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 25.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 14, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.235 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 25.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 14, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.235 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 135.7232, "q_lo": 126.2242, "q_hi": 145.2221, "coverage": 0.984 }, "lspiv": { "q": 118.8359, "q_lo": 111.5368, "q_hi": 126.1351, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0565, "seconds": 55.5, "run_id": "r-20261025220947-2999c4" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio is 1.56 (bed visible), so LSPIV is biased low, at 47.5 m\u00b3/s against STIV's 54.3 m\u00b3/s. The STI streaks are clean and the STIV score is 0.84. The two methods are within 15% of each other." ], "q_published": 54.2581, "q_estimate": 54.2581, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -1.64, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 1, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 1.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -1.64, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 1, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 1.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 54.2581, "q_lo": 47.9391, "q_hi": 60.5772, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 47.5491, "q_lo": 44.6963, "q_hi": 50.4019, "coverage": 0.996 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0516, "seconds": 52.2, "run_id": "r-20261025221100-84021f" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "The first STIV (144 m\u00b3/s) and LSPIV (141 m\u00b3/s) runs agree within 3% and have coherent channel fields. Both have valid fractions of 0.43 and 0.39, and the policy denied them for being under 0.5. This is because the banks are covered by static tree canopy with no surface motion. The STIV reruns that cleared 0.5 gave 64 and 80 m\u00b3/s, with noisy bank vectors dragging the result down. I can't publish a number I trust, so a person should decide whether to mask the canopy stations and accept the ~142 m\u00b3/s estimate." ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 79.8641, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -42.54, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 21, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.091 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 79.8641, "q_lo": 50.1469, "q_hi": 109.5814, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 140.5328, "q_lo": 129.1956, "q_hi": 151.87, "coverage": 0.758 } }, "cost_usd": 0.1803, "seconds": 75.6, "run_id": "r-20261025221208-d6ed8a" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "After widening the search window, LSPIV (24.5 m\u00b3/s) and STIV (25.8 m\u00b3/s) agree within 5%." ], "q_published": 25.1793, "q_estimate": 25.1793, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 27.81, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 27.81, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 24.5365, "q_lo": 23.024, "q_hi": 26.049, "coverage": 0.832 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.8221, "q_lo": 24.3518, "q_hi": 27.2924, "coverage": 0.936 } }, "cost_usd": 0.1163, "seconds": 87.3, "run_id": "r-20261025221418-fde244" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV (54.6 m\u00b3/s) and STIV (56.3 m\u00b3/s) agree within 3%, with full coverage and coherent fields." ], "q_published": 55.4648, "q_estimate": 55.4648, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": 3.21, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 3.21, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 54.6314, "q_lo": 51.3315, "q_hi": 57.9313, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 56.2982, "q_lo": 52.9065, "q_hi": 59.6899, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0502, "seconds": 53.4, "run_id": "r-20261025221622-755144" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 2.0 means the bed is visible, so LSPIV and dense flow are pinned to static texture and failed. STIV has 85% valid vectors, streaks match the overlay, and coverage is 0.95." ], "q_published": 934.1895, "q_estimate": 934.1895, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": -2.97, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 9, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.467 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -2.97, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 9, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.467 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 934.1895, "q_lo": 670.16, "q_hi": 1198.219, "coverage": 0.955 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0532, "seconds": 36.0, "run_id": "r-20261025221730-ff8094" } ] }, "vgc-autopilot-v1.1": { "brain": "autopilot", "label": "v1.1 (after refusal-suite fixes, not blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 9.51, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 10.81, "within_ref_uncertainty": 3, "beats_median_expert": 3, "mean_beats_share": 0.498, "cost_usd": 0.0 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1.3224, "q_estimate": 1.3224, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.9986, "q_lo": 0.9322, "q_hi": 1.065, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.3224, "q_lo": 1.2037, "q_hi": 1.4412, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 52.6, "run_id": "r-20261025230000-74e97d" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 1.1111, "q_estimate": 1.1111, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 74.7, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 74.7, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 1.0948, "q_lo": 1.0195, "q_hi": 1.1701, "coverage": 0.998 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.1274, "q_lo": 1.0472, "q_hi": 1.2076, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 53.6, "run_id": "r-20261025230054-9d9009" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 113.4966, "q_estimate": 113.4966, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 119.3113, "q_lo": 112.027, "q_hi": 126.5957, "coverage": 0.996 }, "stiv": { "q": 107.6818, "q_lo": 100.5467, "q_hi": 114.8169, "coverage": 0.976 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 62.6, "run_id": "r-20261025230150-a3b40e" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 48.9195, "q_estimate": 48.9195, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -11.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -11.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 46.5964, "q_lo": 43.8265, "q_hi": 49.3664, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 51.2426, "q_lo": 47.5321, "q_hi": 54.9531, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 65.9, "run_id": "r-20261025230256-830d0f" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 163.0622, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 17.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 16, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.318 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 163.0622, "q_lo": 148.9296, "q_hi": 177.1948, "coverage": 0.668 }, "stiv": { "q": 158.2204, "q_lo": 140.9368, "q_hi": 175.5039, "coverage": 0.537 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 54.8, "run_id": "r-20261025230403-dabc13" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 24.3753, "q_estimate": 24.3753, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 23.4735, "q_lo": 22.2397, "q_hi": 24.7073, "coverage": 0.993 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.2771, "q_lo": 23.8142, "q_hi": 26.7401, "coverage": 0.941 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 57.1, "run_id": "r-20261025230500-78bf74" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 55.2641, "q_estimate": 55.2641, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 55.0421, "q_lo": 51.7251, "q_hi": 58.359, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 55.4861, "q_lo": 52.0823, "q_hi": 58.8898, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 57.1, "run_id": "r-20261025230558-73117c" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1006.4955, "q_estimate": 1006.4955, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 7.2151, "q_lo": 6.5209, "q_hi": 7.9093, "coverage": 0.958 }, "stiv": { "q": 1006.4955, "q_lo": 666.6257, "q_hi": 1346.3653, "coverage": 0.843 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 38.0, "run_id": "r-20261025230658-75f74e" } ] }, "vgc-llm-sonnet-v1.1": { "brain": "llm", "label": "v1.1 (after refusal-suite fixes, not blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 18.27, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 19.37, "within_ref_uncertainty": 2, "beats_median_expert": 3, "mean_beats_share": 0.417, "cost_usd": 0.557 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 1.30 flags a visible bed, which biases LSPIV low (Q 1.00 vs STIV 1.50 m\u00b3/s). STIV streaks are clean and parallel with score 0.67 and full coverage, so I'm publishing the STIV value of 1.50 m\u00b3/s." ], "q_published": 1.503, "q_estimate": 1.503, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 19.29, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 8, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.533 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 19.29, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 8, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.533 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 1.503, "q_lo": 1.3936, "q_hi": 1.6124, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 0.9986, "q_lo": 0.9322, "q_hi": 1.065, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0509, "seconds": 61.2, "run_id": "r-20261025231502-fbde10" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV (1.06 m\u00b3/s) and STIV (1.13 m\u00b3/s) agree within about 6%, with full coverage and clean evidence." ], "q_published": 1.0934, "q_estimate": 1.0934, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 71.92, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 71.92, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 1.0594, "q_lo": 0.9863, "q_hi": 1.1325, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.1274, "q_lo": 1.0472, "q_hi": 1.2076, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0479, "seconds": 51.8, "run_id": "r-20261025231620-9ab9aa" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "STIV gave 107.7 m\u00b3/s and LSPIV gave 119.3 m\u00b3/s, about 10% apart and within the 15% tolerance. Both have good coverage." ], "q_published": 113.4966, "q_estimate": 113.4966, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 107.6818, "q_lo": 100.5467, "q_hi": 114.8169, "coverage": 0.976 }, "lspiv": { "q": 119.3113, "q_lo": 112.027, "q_hi": 126.5957, "coverage": 0.996 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0554, "seconds": 63.6, "run_id": "r-20261025231728-6ceea2" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "The bed is visible (static_ratio 2.81), so correlation methods are biased low. STIV gives 51.7 m\u00b3/s and LSPIV gives 46.6 m\u00b3/s, a difference of about 10%." ], "q_published": 51.7198, "q_estimate": 51.7198, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -6.24, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.778 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -6.24, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.778 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 51.7198, "q_lo": 48.314, "q_hi": 55.1256, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 46.5964, "q_lo": 43.8265, "q_hi": 49.3664, "coverage": 0.995 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0499, "seconds": 55.9, "run_id": "r-20261025231907-cbdabc" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "The bed is visible (static_ratio 5.3). The first STIV (158 m\u00b3/s) and LSPIV (163 m\u00b3/s) runs agree within 3%, but both have valid_frac of only about 0.36, below the policy's 0.5 minimum, so publishing was denied. The wide-window STIV rerun reached full coverage by accepting noisy tree-bank vectors and gave 104 m\u00b3/s, which disagrees. The wet channel is about 40% of the transect, so I can't tell which number to trust. A person should review the transect and decide how to mask the bank stations." ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 104.3963, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -24.89, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 20, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.136 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 104.3963, "q_lo": 89.5011, "q_hi": 119.2914, "coverage": 1.0 }, "lspiv": { "q": 163.0622, "q_lo": 148.9296, "q_hi": 177.1948, "coverage": 0.668 } }, "cost_usd": 0.1441, "seconds": 68.6, "run_id": "r-20261025232016-2bb7ad" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "STIV (25.3 m\u00b3/s) and dense flow (24.1 m\u00b3/s) agree within 5% and match the coarse-motion speed of about 1.75 m/s. LSPIV (17.3 m\u00b3/s) is biased low, probably by static texture, so I excluded it." ], "q_published": 24.6802, "q_estimate": 24.6802, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 25.28, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 25.28, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 17.3084, "q_lo": 16.3837, "q_hi": 18.2332, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.2771, "q_lo": 23.8142, "q_hi": 26.7401, "coverage": 0.941 }, "dense_flow": { "q": 24.0832, "q_lo": 22.639, "q_hi": 25.5275, "coverage": 0.852 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0894, "seconds": 57.0, "run_id": "r-20261025232209-5f027e" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV (48.2 m\u00b3/s) and STIV (55.5 m\u00b3/s) differ by 14.1%, within the 15% tolerance. Both fields are coherent and coverage is near 100%." ], "q_published": 51.8234, "q_estimate": 51.8234, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": -3.57, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 6, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.706 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -3.57, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 6, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.706 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 48.1607, "q_lo": 45.2111, "q_hi": 51.1104, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 55.4861, "q_lo": 52.0823, "q_hi": 58.8898, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0687, "seconds": 57.5, "run_id": "r-20261025232333-bbb390" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 1.99 flags a visible bed. STIV has clean parallel streaks, 85% valid vectors and 92% coverage. LSPIV is incoherent and biased low." ], "q_published": 1454.8234, "q_estimate": 1454.8234, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 51.1, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 16, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 51.1, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 16, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "stiv": { "q": 1454.8234, "q_lo": 1137.4927, "q_hi": 1772.1541, "coverage": 0.916 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0509, "seconds": 38.6, "run_id": "r-20261025232451-c71f38" } ] }, "vgc-autopilot-v1.2": { "brain": "autopilot", "label": "v1.2 (channel-axis guard, not blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 9.51, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 10.81, "within_ref_uncertainty": 3, "beats_median_expert": 3, "mean_beats_share": 0.498, "cost_usd": 0.0 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1.3224, "q_estimate": 1.3224, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.9986, "q_lo": 0.9322, "q_hi": 1.065, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.3224, "q_lo": 1.2037, "q_hi": 1.4412, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 117.5, "run_id": "r-20261025234903-5ada57" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 1.1111, "q_estimate": 1.1111, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 74.7, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 74.7, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 1.0948, "q_lo": 1.0195, "q_hi": 1.1701, "coverage": 0.998 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.1274, "q_lo": 1.0472, "q_hi": 1.2076, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 127.8, "run_id": "r-20261025235103-a59d84" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 113.4966, "q_estimate": 113.4966, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 119.3113, "q_lo": 112.027, "q_hi": 126.5957, "coverage": 0.996 }, "stiv": { "q": 107.6818, "q_lo": 100.5467, "q_hi": 114.8169, "coverage": 0.976 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 139.9, "run_id": "r-20261025235314-e9b896" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 48.9195, "q_estimate": 48.9195, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -11.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -11.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 46.5964, "q_lo": 43.8265, "q_hi": 49.3664, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 51.2426, "q_lo": 47.5321, "q_hi": 54.9531, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 281.5, "run_id": "r-20261025235538-fb067a" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 163.0622, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 17.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 16, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.318 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 163.0622, "q_lo": 148.9296, "q_hi": 177.1948, "coverage": 0.668 }, "stiv": { "q": 158.2204, "q_lo": 140.9368, "q_hi": 175.5039, "coverage": 0.537 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 344.9, "run_id": "r-20261026000022-8b7169" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 24.3753, "q_estimate": 24.3753, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 23.4735, "q_lo": 22.2397, "q_hi": 24.7073, "coverage": 0.993 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.2771, "q_lo": 23.8142, "q_hi": 26.7401, "coverage": 0.941 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 292.7, "run_id": "r-20261026000613-73f041" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 55.2641, "q_estimate": 55.2641, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 55.0421, "q_lo": 51.7251, "q_hi": 58.359, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 55.4861, "q_lo": 52.0823, "q_hi": 58.8898, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 176.2, "run_id": "r-20261026001109-09e4b4" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1006.4955, "q_estimate": 1006.4955, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 7.2151, "q_lo": 6.5209, "q_hi": 7.9093, "coverage": 0.958 }, "stiv": { "q": 1006.4955, "q_lo": 666.6257, "q_hi": 1346.3653, "coverage": 0.843 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 128.5, "run_id": "r-20261026001408-ceaea4" } ] }, "vgc-autopilot-v1.3": { "brain": "autopilot", "label": "v1.3 (mean frame interval, publication gate, not blind)", "summary": { "test_videos": 6, "published": 5, "escalated": 1, "held": 0, "mae_published_pct": 9.85, "mae_all_estimates_pct": 11.09, "within_ref_uncertainty": 3, "beats_median_expert": 3, "mean_beats_share": 0.498, "cost_usd": 0.0 }, "rows": [ { "video": "vgc1", "split": "dev", "site": "La Vence \u00e0 Pont de Vence (St-Egr\u00e8ve)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1.3224, "q_estimate": 1.3224, "q_ref": 1.26, "u_ref": 0.124, "published": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.95, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 2, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.933 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 23.02, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 0.9986, "q_lo": 0.9322, "q_hi": 1.065, "coverage": 1.0 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.3224, "q_lo": 1.2037, "q_hi": 1.4412, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 119.3, "run_id": "r-20261026010445-c92ea3" }, { "video": "vgc8", "split": "dev", "site": "Finsalbekken \u00e0 Ridabu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 1.109, "q_estimate": 1.109, "q_ref": 0.636, "u_ref": 0.05, "published": { "err_pct": 74.37, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 74.37, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 24, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.0 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 9.43, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 1.0927, "q_lo": 1.0176, "q_hi": 1.1679, "coverage": 0.998 }, "stiv": { "q": 1.1253, "q_lo": 1.0452, "q_hi": 1.2054, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 114.6, "run_id": "r-20261026010706-79ebe3" }, { "video": "vgc2", "split": "test", "site": "West Normanby (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 113.4966, "q_estimate": 113.4966, "q_ref": 107.945, "u_ref": 0.055, "published": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 5.14, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 3, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.882 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 16.17, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 119.3113, "q_lo": 112.027, "q_hi": 126.5957, "coverage": 0.996 }, "stiv": { "q": 107.6818, "q_lo": 100.5467, "q_hi": 114.8169, "coverage": 0.976 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 135.7, "run_id": "r-20261026010904-fa2865" }, { "video": "vgc3", "split": "test", "site": "Le S\u00e9ran \u00e0 Belmont-Luth\u00e9zieu", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 48.0026, "q_estimate": 48.0026, "q_ref": 55.16, "u_ref": 0.058, "published": { "err_pct": -12.98, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": -12.98, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 7, "n_experts": 18, "beats_share": 0.667 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 24.51, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 46.5351, "q_lo": 43.7688, "q_hi": 49.3014, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 49.4701, "q_lo": 46.524, "q_hi": 52.4163, "coverage": 0.994 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 171.2, "run_id": "r-20261026011123-8e3ee0" }, { "video": "vgc4", "split": "test", "site": "Russell River (drone)", "decision": "ESCALATE", "method": null, "basis": null, "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "q_published": null, "q_estimate": 163.0622, "q_ref": 139.0, "u_ref": 0.15, "published": { "err_pct": null, "within_ref_u": null, "expert_rank": null }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 17.31, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 16, "n_experts": 22, "beats_share": 0.318 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 11.95, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 163.0622, "q_lo": 148.9296, "q_hi": 177.1948, "coverage": 0.668 }, "stiv": { "q": 158.2204, "q_lo": 140.9368, "q_hi": 175.5039, "coverage": 0.537 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 49.9, "run_id": "r-20261026011416-d79250" }, { "video": "vgc5", "split": "test", "site": "Le Stor\u00e5ne \u00e0 Ruud", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 24.3753, "q_estimate": 24.3753, "q_ref": 19.7, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 23.73, "within_ref_u": false, "expert_rank": 22, "n_experts": 23, "beats_share": 0.087 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 13.39, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 23.4735, "q_lo": 22.2397, "q_hi": 24.7073, "coverage": 0.993 }, "stiv": { "q": 25.2771, "q_lo": 23.8142, "q_hi": 26.7401, "coverage": 0.941 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 51.9, "run_id": "r-20261026011507-9fc5eb" }, { "video": "vgc6", "split": "test", "site": "Le Groin \u00e0 Artemare (01)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "mean_of_agreeing", "basis": "methods_agree", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "q_published": 55.2649, "q_estimate": 55.2649, "q_ref": 53.74, "u_ref": 0.0928, "published": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 2.84, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 5, "n_experts": 17, "beats_share": 0.765 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 17.7, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 55.0429, "q_lo": 51.7259, "q_hi": 58.3599, "coverage": 0.995 }, "stiv": { "q": 55.4869, "q_lo": 52.0831, "q_hi": 58.8907, "coverage": 1.0 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 49.5, "run_id": "r-20261026011559-5cc06c" }, { "video": "vgc7", "split": "test", "site": "Herbert River (drone)", "decision": "PUBLISH", "method": "stiv", "basis": "bed_visible_prefers_stiv", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "q_published": 1006.4955, "q_estimate": 1006.4955, "q_ref": 962.8, "u_ref": 0.053, "published": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "estimate": { "err_pct": 4.54, "within_ref_u": true, "expert_rank": 12, "n_experts": 15, "beats_share": 0.267 }, "expert_median_err_pct": 2.16, "estimates": { "lspiv": { "q": 7.2151, "q_lo": 6.5209, "q_hi": 7.9093, "coverage": 0.958 }, "stiv": { "q": 1006.4955, "q_lo": 666.6257, "q_hi": 1346.3653, "coverage": 0.843 } }, "cost_usd": 0.0, "seconds": 35.1, "run_id": "r-20261026011649-54a66f" } ] } }, "refusal": { "refusal-autopilot": { "cases": 9, "correct": 6, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.317 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "correct": false, "q": 0.72 }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "the evidence did not satisfy the publication policy" ], "correct": false, "q": 0.8883 }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": false, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, glare" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:planar_grp_level_mismatch" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] }, "refusal-llm-sonnet": { "cases": 9, "correct": 6, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 1.35 flags a visible bed, so LSPIV is biased and unreliable (7% valid vectors); STIV has full coverage, clean streaks, and Q=1.42 m\u00b3/s \u00b18%." ], "correct": true, "q": 1.4171 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "Stabilization was rejected (residual_px_p95 infinite, motion_px_p95 about 496 px, against a 2 px limit), even though the camera-pose check says the camera did not move. The orthorectified frames can't be trusted, so any velocity or discharge from them would be unreliable. The footage itself is fine (static_ratio 0.12, no quality flags), so a recapture wouldn't help. A person needs to check the stabilization and the reference view." ], "correct": false, "q": null }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "Stabilization was rejected (residual_px_p95 infinite, motion_px_p95 494, inlier ratio 0.43), yet the camera-pose check reports no movement (0.41 px). The ortho velocities would therefore be unreliable, and I can't tell whether the cause is the footage or the stabilization. Image quality is otherwise fine (static_ratio 0.11, no flags), so a person needs to check the stabilization and geometry before any discharge is published." ], "correct": false, "q": null }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": false, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "Diagnostics show glare_frac=1.0 with no_moving_tracers, low_contrast and blurred flags, and the orthorectified water area is saturated white, so no velocimetry is possible on this clip." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "frozen_frac 0.985 (limit 0.2) means almost all frames are duplicates. STIV shows a blank space-time image with random vectors, LSPIV has 0.2% valid vectors, and the surface has no tracers with the bed visible." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "54% of frames are frozen (limit 20%), there are no moving tracers, and STIV and LSPIV both returned essentially zero valid vectors, so the clip can't be measured." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:planar_grp_level_mismatch" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] }, "refusal-autopilot-v1.1": { "cases": 9, "correct": 9, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.3002 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.0979 }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.1163 }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, too_dark" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, glare" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:planar_grp_level_mismatch" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] }, "refusal-llm-sonnet-v1.1": { "cases": 9, "correct": 9, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "static_ratio 1.34 flags a visible bed; STIV has 100% valid vectors and clean parallel streaks, while LSPIV had only 7.5% valid vectors and is biased low." ], "correct": true, "q": 1.4237 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV (1.05 m\u00b3/s) and STIV (1.11 m\u00b3/s) agree within about 5%, with full coverage and good scores." ], "correct": true, "q": 1.0804 }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV gives 1.06 m\u00b3/s and STIV gives 1.14 m\u00b3/s, about 7% apart; coverage is full and the evidence images look coherent." ], "correct": true, "q": 1.0994 }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "Diagnostics flag too_dark (dark_frac 1.0), no_moving_tracers, blurred and low_contrast; the ortho image is nearly black, so no velocimetry would be reliable." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "Diagnostics flag glare_frac=1.0, no_moving_tracers, blurred and low_contrast, and the ortho water region is saturated white, so no velocimetry is possible on this clip." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "The clip can't be measured. frozen_frac is 0.985 against a limit of 0.2, so almost all frames are duplicates. The diagnostics also flag no_moving_tracers, and static_ratio is 386 because the bed shows through clear water. Velocimetry on this footage would be unreliable." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "More than half the frames are frozen duplicates (frozen_frac 0.544 against a limit of 0.2), the bed is visible with no tracers, and both STIV (0 of 60 valid) and LSPIV (1 of 248 valid) failed, so no reliable discharge can be computed." ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:planar_grp_level_mismatch" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] }, "refusal-autopilot-v1.2": { "cases": 9, "correct": 9, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.3002 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.0979 }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.1163 }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, too_dark" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, glare" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:level_out_of_range" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] }, "refusal-autopilot-v1.3": { "cases": 9, "correct": 9, "wrong_publishes": 0, "rows": [ { "case": "clean_vgc1", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "riverbed visible through clear water: correlation is pinned low, space-time streaks are not" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.3002 }, { "case": "clean_vgc8", "transform": "none", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.0979 }, { "case": "handheld_shake_vgc8", "transform": "shake", "expected": [ "PUBLISH" ], "decision": "PUBLISH", "reasons": [ "LSPIV and STIV agree within tolerance" ], "correct": true, "q": 1.1163 }, { "case": "night_vgc1", "transform": "night", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, too_dark" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "glare_vgc8", "transform": "glare", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers, glare" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "frozen_feed_vgc1", "transform": "frozen", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "still_water_vgc8", "transform": "still", "expected": [ "HOLD" ], "decision": "HOLD", "reasons": [ "image quality blocks velocimetry: no_moving_tracers" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "camera_moved_vgc1", "transform": "moved", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "camera_moved: the view no longer matches the surveyed reference frame; GRP pixels must be re-confirmed before any gauging" ], "correct": true, "q": null }, { "case": "level_above_banks_vgc8", "transform": "level", "expected": [ "ESCALATE" ], "decision": "ESCALATE", "reasons": [ "perception_failed:orthorectify:level_out_of_range" ], "correct": true, "q": null } ] } } }